And now, before I go to sleep, I’ll bang out another couple thousand words, this time about the NL West. Good times!
National League West
1.) Los Angeles Dodgers
2.) Arizona Diamondbacks
3.) Colorado Rockies
4.) San Diego Padres
5.) San Francisco Giants
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
2007 Record: 82-80 (4th place, NL West)
2008 Prediction: 1st place, NL West
Key Additions: Andruw Jones, OF; Hiroki Kuroda, SP
Key Losses: David Wells, SP
Biggest Strength:
Biggest Weakness:
Biggest Improvement: Power Hitting (signed Andruw Jones)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Rafael Furcal, SS
Russell Martin, C
Jeff Kent, 2B
Andruw Jones, CF
James Loney, 1B
Nomar Garciaparra, 3
Matt Kemp, RF
Andre Ethier, LF
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Brad Penny, RHP
2.) Derek Lowe, RHP
3.) Chad Billingsley, RHP
4.) Esteban Loaiza, RHP
5.) Hiroki Kuroda, RHP
Closer: Takashi Saito, RHP
Key Setup Man: Jonathan Broxton, RHP
Joe Torre has been criticized in his recent years as the Yankees manager for failing to convert his team’s playoff berths into World Series titles. So now he’s in Los Angeles.
And in Los Angeles, it’s likely that just getting this team to the playoffs would be considered a pretty big step in the right direction. It’s doubtful that Torre will have to worry about his job if the Dodgers go down in the division series this year.
Well, I think they’ll at least have the opportunity to put my theory to the test. The Dodgers have had the pitching for a few years, and have developed some key pieces to turn them into bona fide contenders on a year-to-year basis. They’ve undergone a bit of a youth movement in Los Angeles — the unfortunate Schmidt signing notwithstanding – and still have some nice veteran pieces available off the bench.
A lot has been made recently of Torre’s decision to start Ethier over Juan Pierre. I think it’s a brilliant move by a guy who has made some pretty bad decisions in recent years. Pierre is not the type of hitter at this stage of his career that regularly warrants four at-bats per game. He is, at best, a #8 hitter in a National League lineup. Andre Ethier has far more potential, and makes a lot more sense as an everyday player. This is to take nothing away from Pierre. The guy can steal bases, and as Torre witnessed firsthand in the 2004 ALCS, having a guy that can come off the bench and steal a base in a late-game situation is a luxury that, if not invaluable, is certainly measurably better than maybe getting that steal with two outs in the third inning.
Of course, Pierre also becomes expendable because the Dodgers finally have a legitimate power bat in their lineup. Coming off of a very bad contract year, Andruw Jones has taken over in center field for the Dodgers. Even in an off-year, Jones managed to crush 26 home runs, a number that would have been tops for Los Angeles. In the two years prior, Jones averaged 46 round-trippers. Even if he doesn’t reach those power numbers again, the addition of a legitimate power threat to the middle of the Dodgers lineup is something that I feel puts them over the top as a potential playoff team.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
2007 Record: 90-72 (won NL West, lost to Colorado Rockies in NLCS)
2008 Prediction: 2nd place, NL West (NL Wild Card)
Key Additions: Dan Haren, SP
Key Losses: Carlos Quentin, OF
Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching
Biggest Weakness: Bullpen
Biggest Improvement: Starting Pitching (traded for Haren)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Eric Byrnes, LF
Orlando Hudson, 2B
Chris Young, CF
Mark Reynolds, 3B
Justin Upton, RF
Stephen Drew, SS
Conor Jackson, 1B
Chris Snyder, C
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Brandon Webb, RHP
2.) Dan Haren, RHP
3.) Randy Johnson, LHP
4.) Micah Owings, RHP
5.) Yusmeiro Petit, RHP
Closer: Brandon Lyon, RHP
Key Setup Men: Chad Qualls, RHP; Tony Pena, RHP
I didn’t “get” this team last year. I couldn’t fathom how the Diamondbacks won as many games as they did, and I still didn’t understand it after watching them in the playoffs last year.
This year, though, I can kind of see it. They improved their pitching, and now have one of the best one-two punches in the National League in the form of Webb and Haren — even though I expect Haren to come down to earth this year. Their young roster also has another year under its collective belt, which should do them a lot of good, especially considering the playoff experience they got last year.
And yet, ironically, I think this team’s hopes hinge on the cranky back of Randy Johnson. If he can return from his back surgery and contribute numbers that are at least in line with the #3 slot that he’s penciled into, this team that I didn’t understand the appeal of just one year ago could end up being the favorite to represent the National League in the World Series.
COLORADO ROCKIES
2007 Record: 90-73 (2nd place, NL West — won Wild Card, lost to Boston Red Sox in World Series)
2008 Prediction: 3rd place, NL West
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: Kazuo Matsui, 2B
Biggest Strength: Bullpen
Biggest Weakness: Starting Rotation
Biggest Improvement: None
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Willy Taveras, CF
Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Todd Helton, 1B
Matt Holliday, LF
Garrett Atkins, 3B
Brad Hawpe, RF
Yorvit Torrealba, C
Jayson Nix, 2B
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Jeff Francis, LHP
2.) Aaron Cook, RHP
3.) Franklin Morales, LHP
4.) Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
5.) Mark Redman, LHP
Closer: Manny Corpas, RHP
Key Setup Man: Brian Fuentes, LHP
This is another team that I didn’t feel was all that good. They went on a hell of a run, don’t get me wrong. But I think it was more a matter of them getting hot than a matter of them being all that good. I still don’t trust this team’s pitching, though Jimenez has a lot of potential and a hell of an arm. I just can’t see the Rockies building on their success of a year ago now that they’ve had suitable time to “cool off.”
SAN DIEGO PADRES
2007 Record: 89-74 (3rd place, NL West)
2008 Prediction: 4th place, NL West
Key Additions: Jim Edmonds, OF; Tadahito Iguchi, 2B; Mark Prior, SP; Randy Wolf, SP
Key Losses: Mike Cameron, OF
Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching
Biggest Weakness: Offense
Biggest Improvement: Starting Pitching Depth
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Brian Giles, RF
Tadahito Iguchi, 2B
Jim Edmonds, CF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Michael Barrett, C
Khalil Greene, SS
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B
Scott Hairston, LF
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Jake Peavy, RHP
2.) Chris Young, RHP
3.) Greg Maddux, RHP
4.) Randy Wolf, LHP
5.) Mark Prior, RHP
Closer: Trevor Hoffman, RHP
Key Setup Men: Heath Bell, RHP; Cla Meredith, RHP
Just how competitive is the NL West when the team that boasts arguably the best one-two punch in the division (right now, I feel that Peavy/Young still edges out Webb/Haren) is a team that could end up placing fourth in the division?
The Padres were a Trevor Hoffman save away from ending the Rockies’ October run before it got started last year. Instead, Hoffman once again wilted under pressure and the Rockies continued their improbable run to a National League Championship.
This year’s Padres team does not appear as strong on paper as last year’s offering. They’ve replaced Mike Cameron in center with an aging Jim Edmonds. The disappointing Marcus Giles will be replaced by Tadahito Iguchi, who has sort of faded into obscurity after a strong beginning with the White Sox.
The most intriguing free agent pickup for the Padres has to be Mark Prior. Recovering yet again from injury, the ex-Cubs phenom has seen his career be thrown the proverbial life preserver in the form of a contract with a team that plays half of its games in what has to be the best pitcher’s park in the league. If Prior can’t get his career back on track once he heals up for San Diego, it may be time to stick a fork in him once and for all.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2007 Record: 71-91 (last place in NL West)
2008 Prediction: Last Place, NL West
Key Additions: Aaron Rowand, OF
Key Losses: Barry Bonds, OF
Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching
Biggest Weakness: The Part Where They Hit The Ball
Biggest Improvement: None
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Dave Roberts, LF
Omar Vizquel, SS
Randy Winn, RF
Aaron Rowand, CF
Ray Durham, 2B
Rich Aurilia, 1B
Bengie Molina, C
Jose Castillo, 3B
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Barry Zito, LHP
2.) Matt Cain, RHP
3.) Tim Lincecum, RHP
4.) Noah Lowry, LHP
5.) Jonathan Sanchez, LHP
Closer: Brian Wilson, RHP
Key Setup Man: Tyler Walker, RHP
You know, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum could potentially turn into the best 1-2 punch in this division. Regretfully, if you’re a Giants fan, you probably don’t have that to look forward to this year. Then again, if you’re a Giants fan, you probably don’t have a whole lot to look forward to this year.
I guess you could get some perverse enjoyment out of what will probably be another humbling year for this franchise by organizing a pool to guess the date on which the Giants officially come right out and blame the departed Barry Bonds for the team’s miserable season. That is, if they’re even willing to call him by name.
