Time for part five of my pre-season (well, pre-first games) baseball analysis. In this installment, I tackle the National League Central, which I have declared war upon. I’m comparing my apples (correctly predicted games) to their best team’s oranges (actual , real-life wins) through the miracle that is winning percentage. All throughout the year, I’ll be competing with the cream of the NL Central crop as I embark upon this incredible time waster/content producer.
And speaking of content, here’s about two thousand words about the weakest division in the weaker of Major League Baseball’s two leagues.
2008 National League Central
1.) Milwaukee Brewers
2.) Houston Astros
3.) Chicago Cubs
4.) Cincinnati Reds
5.) St. Louis Cardinals
6.) Pittsburgh Pirates
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2007 Record: 83-79 (2nd place in NL Central)
2008 Prediction: 1st place, NL Central
Key Additions: Eric Gagne, RP; Mike Cameron, OF; Jason Kendall, C
Key Losses: Francisco Cordero, RP; Scott Linebrink, RP; Geoff Jenkins, OF; Claudio Vargas, SP
Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching Depth
Biggest Weakness: Uncertain Closer Situation
Biggest Improvement: First Full Season of Ryan Braun
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Corey Hart, RF
J.J. Hardy, SS
Ryan Braun, LF
Prince Fielder, 1B
Bill Hall, 3B
Rickie Weeks, 2B
Tony Gwynn Jr., CF
Jason Kendall, C
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Ben Sheets, RHP
2.) Jeff Suppan, RHP
3.) Yovani Gallardo, RHP
4.) Dave Bush, RHP
5.) Manny Parra, LHP
Closer: Eric Gagne, RHP
Key Setup Man: Derrick Turnbow, RHP
I’m not sure if it’s a case of being a little ahead of the curve or just not learning my lesson, but for the second year in the row, I’m picking the Brewers to win the National League Central. They came pretty close last year, falling just two games short of the first-place Cubs at the end of the year. My rationale for picking them last year was that I knew the Brewers had Braun and Gallardo waiting in the wings in their minor league system. Sure enough, both guys surfaced in the second half of the ‘07 season, and both made pretty significant impacts on the team. Braun was particularly impactful, running away with the NL Rookie of the Year award and even earning some MVP votes thanks to his 34 homers, 15 steals and .370 on-base percentage in his first 113 big league games.
This year, the Brewers can expect to have Braun available for all 162 games, and Gallardo available for the majority of the year — he’ll start the season on the disabled list as he recovers from knee surgery. Call it a hunch, but I think the extra 50 or so games of Braun will be good for a couple of wins, while it’s not much of a stretch to say that Gallardo was better than some of the pitching the Brew Crew got in his stead early last year. Capuano was particularly awful last year, and with Parra apparently ready for the big leagues, the Brewers could be looking at another upgrade. Milwaukee’s front office seems to feel so strongly about its young pitching prospects that the Brewers were willing to release Claudio Vargas prior to the start of the season. Vargas posted an 11-6 record last year, though he did so while being one of the three Brewers starters to post an earned-run average over 5.
Some may say that the move from Cordero to Gagne is a significant downgrade. Even having seen Gagne pitch with the Red Sox, I’m not sure that it’s true. Gagne looked pretty good filling Cordero’s shoes as the Rangers closer during the first half of the 2007 season, and it’s hard to say that Gagne is finished even in light of his hideous three month stay in Boston. While it may have just been excuses, there seemed to be a lot of whispers of possible injuries that Gagne was trying to hide after being dealt to the Sox. He also never seemed to develop much chemistry with catcher Jason Varitek, nor could he ever seem to adjust to no longer being “the man.”
Well, the Brewers seem to still have faith in him, handing him $10 million to replace Cordero as the team’s closer. Of course, if the Boston Gagne shows up, the Brewers do have a pretty decent contingency plan in the form of Derrick Turnbow, another fringe closer with a steroid history. While I’m on this track, the Brewers also have Guillermo Mota.
Anyway, yeah. Even with the early injury problems with Gallardo and Capuano, the future injury problems that come with having Sheets as the staff ace, the drug suspension of free agent signing Mike Cameron, the uncertainty of the closer situation, and the all-in-all general state of disarray surrounding this franchise in late March 2008, I still feel the Brewers are the favorites to win their division.
Welcome to the National League Central.
HOUSTON ASTROS
2007 Record: 73-89 (4th place, NL Central)
2008 Prediction: 2nd place, NL Central
Key Additions: Miguel Tejada, SS; Kazuo Matsui, 2B; Jose Valverde, RP
Key Losses: Brad Lidge, RP; Craig Biggio, 2B; Luke Scott, OF
Biggest Strength: Team Speed
Biggest Weakness: Starting Pitching
Biggest Improvement: Shortstop (traded for Tejada)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Kazuo Matsui, 2B
Hunter Pence, RF
Lance Berkman, 1B
Carlos Lee, LF
Miguel Tejada, SS
Ty Wigginton, 3B
J.R. Towles, C
Michael Bourn, CF
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Roy Oswalt, RHP
2.) Wandy Rodriguez, LHP
3.) Brandon Backe, RHP
4.) Shawn Chacon, RHP
5.) Chris Sampson, RHP
Closer: Jose Valverde, RHP
Key Setup Man: Oscar Villarreal, RHP
I guess you’d call the Astros my sleeper pick in the NL Central. To some extent, I like what they’ve done with their team. They went out and tried to get “solid up the middle,” signing Matsui to replace Biggio (though Kaz will start the season on the DL due to an anal fissure), trading for Tejada (one day before the release of the Mitchell Report) and getting Bourn back in the Lidge-to-Philly trade. Bourn’s biggest asset, by far, is his speed, and given the center field he’ll be patrolling, his acquisition could end up doing wonders for the Astros.
There’s a very real possibility it could work against them, however. There’s a lot of talk from manager Cecil Cooper that the Astros will be doing a lot of running in 2008. Two of the aforementioned pickups for the middle make sense for that strategy, though Tejada isn’t known for his wheels. In fact, I’d argue that the Astros will want to keep their runners from going too crazy on the basepaths when the right-handed Tejada is at the plate, because, with his swing, he’s capable of doing a lot of damage in Minute Maid Park.
Still, the addition of Bourn could be of help to the Astros pitching staff that had a generally awful year in 2007. Staff ace Roy Oswalt posted his usual solid numbers, but it was question marks the rest of the way. Brandon Backe struggled with injuries for most of the year, though he was good when he did make it back to the hill late in the season. Woody Williams and Jason Jennings are both gone from the team after poor 2007 seasons, while Matt Albers was dealt to Baltimore in the Tejada trade. Essentially, the Astros purged their pitching staff of much of its negative 2007 contributors over the winter (and spring, in Williams’ case) and tried to start fresh. Whether it will pay off or not remains to be seen, but I’m not sure it can get much worse in contrast to last season. Shawn Chacon, in particular, seems like an interesting addition to the staff.
If this year’s starting pitching manages to get the job done on a more frequent basis than last year’s staff, it will have former Diamondbacks closer Jose Valverde — the NL’s version of Todd Jones, really — to close out games. His saves don’t tend to be on the pretty side, but he’s effective, and he seems to have more guts than Lidge did, at least. It’s another example of a paper downgrade that may work out anyway.
CHICAGO CUBS
2007 Record: 85-77 (won NL Central, lost to Arizona Diamondbacks in NLDS)
2008 Prediction: 3rd place, NL Central
Key Additions: Kosuke Fukudome, OF
Key Losses: Jacque Jones, OF
Biggest Strength: Bullpen
Biggest Weakness: Back End of Rotation
Biggest Improvement: Catcher
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Alfonso Soriano, LF
Kosuke Fukudome, RF
Derrek Lee, 1B
Aramis Ramirez, 3B
Geovany Soto, C
Mark DeRosa, 2B
Ryan Theriot, SS
Felix Pie, CF
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Carlos Zambrano, RHP
2.) Ted Lilly, LHP
3.) Rich Hill, LHP
4.) Ryan Dempster, RHP
5.) Jason Marquis, RHP
Closer: Kerry Wood, RHP
Key Setup Men: Carlos Marmol, RHP; Bob Howry, RHP
I base this pick on tradition more than anything else. The Chicago Cubs have a knack for getting everybody excited about the team following a strong season, only to follow that strong season up with a dud. Well, prior to the playoffs last year, I had the Cubs getting to the World Series and knocking off the Red Sox in seven games. Didn’t happen, obviously, but the very fact that I felt they were capable of something indicates that, yes, I was excited about this team. And I wasn’t the only one.
So it’s high time for them to lay an egg. All the ingredients are here. They went out and spent big on a Japanese import to play in the outfield. They’re sending a serviceable bullpen arm back to the starting rotation, where he has historically been, at best, mediocre. And, yes, they’re relying on Kerry Wood to fill a crucial role with this team.
The likely results can best be described in a single word: disaster.
CINCINNATI REDS
2007 Record: 72-90 (4th place, NL Central)
2008 Prediction: 4th place, NL Central
Key Additions: Francisco Cordero, RP; Corey Patterson, OF; Edinson Volquez, SP
Key Losses: Josh Hamilton, OF
Biggest Strength: Farm System
Biggest Weakness: Dusty Baker’s Veteran Love
Biggest Improvement:
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Corey Patterson, CF
Brandon Phillips, 2B
Adam Dunn, LF
Ken Griffey Jr., RF
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
Scott Hatteberg, 1B
Javier Valentin, C
Jeff Keppinger, SS
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Aaron Harang, RHP
2.) Bronson Arroyo, RHP
3.) Josh Fogg, RHP
4.) Edinson Volquez, RHP
5.) Johnny Cueto, RHP
Closer: Francisco Cordero, RHP
Key Setup Man: David Weathers, RHP
It’s a shame, really. The 2008 Cincinnati Reds have a lot of similarities to the 2007 Milwaukee Brewers. They have a couple of strong minor league arms and a couple of strong minor league bats that look ready to make an impact at the Major League level. Jay Bruce is widely considered to be the top prospect in all of baseball. Joey Votto is highly thought of, as well. Johnny Cueto, the only guy who made the roster, is probably only there because of injuries. Homer Bailey struggled at the big league last year, but that hasn’t caused scouts to give up on him completely. He was considered a better prospect than Gallardo for quite some time, and is still among the top prospects in all of baseball. And yet, unlike the Brewers, who I not only picked to win the NL Central prior to the start of the ‘07 season, but who I picked to represent the National League in the World Series, as well, I have this team finishing in fourth place in the division.
Why is that? Because of the team’s manager. Dusty Baker has always displayed a proclivity to give veteran players more playing time than his team’s prospects. Baker has fielded some of the worst veteran teams in recent history, and he looks to be well on his way to doing so in 2008. He’s chosen to start Hatteberg over Votto to begin the year, and I doubt it was any coincidence that Corey Patterson wound up on this team during spring training, a move that all but officially banished Bruce from the majors.
Instead, the Reds will go with players Baker is comfortable/familiar with and will finish in the middle of the pack in a division that could be very winnable for them if the Reds had hired a competent manager and/or front office. And this is to say nothing of the jeopardy that Harang and Arroyo’s arms will be put in before very long. In that sense, maybe it’s a blessing that Cueto will get sent packing and Bailey hasn’t even been given the time of day thus far under the Baker regime.
Sadly, their days are likely to come sooner rather than later.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
2007 Record: 78-84 (3rd place, NL Central)
2008 Prediction: 4th place, NL Central
Key Additions: Troy Glaus, 3B; Kyle Lohse, SP
Key Losses: Scott Rolen, 3B; Jim Edmonds, OF; Troy Percival, RP; David Eckstein, SS
Biggest Strength: Albert Pujols
Biggest Weakness: Starting Pitching
Biggest Improvement: Starting Pitching (signed Kyle Lohse)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Adam Kennedy, 2B
Rick Ankiel, CF
Albert Pujols, 1B
Troy Glaus, 3B
Chris Duncan, LF
Skip Schumaker, RF
Yadier Molina, C
Cesar Izturis, SS
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Adam Wainwright, RHP
2.) Kyle Lohse, RHP
3.) Braden Looper, RHP
4.) Anthony Reyes, RHP
5.) Brad Thompson, RHP
Closer: Jason Isringhausen, RHP
Key Setup Man: Russ Springer, RHP
I was going to place this team fourth in the division based mainly on reputation. Then I had a look at the team’s pitching staff. I’m currently debating on whether or not I made the right choice not to put them dead last in the division. I’m really starting to think I made the wrong choice by placing them fifth.
There should be plenty of fodder for the “what this team is missing is David Eckstein’s grit!” stories this season. The Fire Joe Morgan guys have to be salivating.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2007 Record: 68-94 (last place, NL Central)
2008 Prediction: Last Place, NL Central
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: Salomon Torres, RP
Biggest Strength:
Biggest Weakness:
Biggest Improvement:
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Nate McLouth, CF
Freddy Sanchez, 2B
Jason Bay, LF
Adam LaRoche, 1B
Xavier Nady, RF
Jose Bautista, 3B
Ronny Paulino, C
Jack Wilson, SS
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Ian Snell, RHP
2.) Tom Gorzelanny, LHP
3.) Paul Maholm, LHP
4.) Matt Morris, RHP
5.) Zach Duke, LHP
Closer: Matt Capps, RHP
Key Setup Man: Damaso Marte, LHP
Having looked at this team’s roster, I now officially regret picking them to finish behind the St. Louis Cardinals. Seriously, the Cardinals would probably kill to have Matt Morris back right about now.
These are the same Cardinals, mind you, that won the World Series in 2005. That’s just incredibly sad.
Welcome to the National League Central.
