Tonight is the “official” Opening Night in Major League Baseball. Two games have already been played over in Japan, but for all intents and purposes, the season begins in earnest tonight and tomorrow.
The first stateside regular season game will see the Washington Nationals host the Atlanta Braves at Washington’s new ballpark, the simplistically named Nationals Park. The speculation seems to be that the new park is one that will favor hitters, a sharp contrast to the cavernous shithole that was RFK Stadium.
More on that a little later.
2008 National League East
1.) New York Mets
2.) Atlanta Braves
3.) Philadelphia Phillies
4.) Florida Marlins
5.) Washington Nationals
NEW YORK METS
2007 Record: 88-74 (2nd place, NL East)
2008 Prediction: 1st place, NL East
Key Additions: Johan Santana, SP; Brian Schneider, C; Ryan Church, OF
Key Losses: Paul Lo Duca, C; Tom Glavine, SP; Shawn Green, OF
Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching
Biggest Weakness: Outfield
Biggest Improvement: Starting Pitching (traded for Santana, Pedro Martinez returns from injury)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Jose Reyes, SS
Luis Castillo, 2B
Carlos Beltran, CF
David Wright, 3B
Carlos Delgado, 1B
Ryan Church, RF
Brian Schneider, C
Endy Chavez, LF
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Johan Santana, LHP
2.) Pedro Martinez, RHP
3.) Oliver Perez, LHP
4.) John Maine, RHP
5.) Mike Pelfrey, RHP
Closer: Billy Wagner, LHP
Key Setup Man: Aaron Heilman, RHP
With the addition of Johan Santana, the New York Mets have become the trendy pick to win the National League pennant in 2008. Through process of elimination, that’s not a terrible pick.
Of course, they were also a pre-season favorite last year, and we saw how that ended up. The fact of the matter is, Santana is a clear upgrade from the aging Glavine, whose gutless performance in game 162 of the 2007 season was a fitting capper to the epic collapse of last year’s Mets team. A team filled with veterans, the Mets were frequently accused of trying to coast to a division title, only to “turn it on” in the “games that matter.” When those games came earlier than expected, though, the Mets were incapable of doing so.
Stunningly, manager Willie Randolph survived the team’s historic collapse. In fact, for a team responsible for such a level of embarrassment, many fewer heads wound up rolling than I would have guessed. Glavine is gone following his untimely meltdown, and Mitchell Report semi-star Paul Lo Duca departed for the Washington Nationals. Shawn Green announced his retirement. And that, more or less, is the extent of the high-level exits from the Mets during the 2007-08 winter.
This could mean one of two things. Either this team will remain a complacent, veteran-heavy group that’s content to phone it in during the regular season and hope for the best in terms of the playoffs, or the team will be inspired by last year’s debacle and play all 162 regular season games like they’re must-win situations.
I think the majority of the team’s star players (Wright, Martinez, Beltran) will elect to go with the latter strategy, allowing the Mets to recapture the NL East pennant in 2008.
ATLANTA BRAVES
2007 Record: 84-78 (3rd place, NL East)
2008 Prediction: 2nd place, NL East
Key Additions: Tom Glavine, SP; Mark Kotsay, OF
Key Losses: Andruw Jones, OF; Edgar Renteria, SS
Biggest Strength: Starting Rotation
Biggest Weakness: Bullpen
Biggest Improvement: Starting Rotation (signed Glavine, Mike Hampton returning)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Kelly Johnson, 2B
Yunel Escobar, SS
Chipper Jones, 3B
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Jeff Francoeur, RF
Brian McCann, C
Matt Diaz, LF
Mark Kotsay, CF
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) John Smoltz, RHP
2.) Tim Hudson, RHP
3.) Tom Glavine, LHP
4.) Mike Hampton, LHP
5.) Buddy Carlyle, RHP
Closer: Rafael Soriano, RHP
The Atlanta Braves climbed back into prominence in the NL East last year after finishing below .500 for the first time since 1990. The team’s 84-78 record reversed a trend that began in 2002 which saw the Braves’ winning percentage continue to shrink.
My best guess is that the Braves will post a record in the vicinity of that 84-78 mark again this year. It may be a little lower — they lost Renteria and Andruw Jones, after all — but the Braves organization seems to believe that Escobar can fill in adequately for Renteria, while Jones is, in my opinion, one of the more overrated talents in baseball. He had a particularly awful year in 2007, and while I expect him to bounce back to some extent in Los Angeles, the Braves were better off passing on bringing the center fielder back. They’ve replaced Andruw with another center fielder who’s making too much money in Mark Kotsay, who, if he recovers from the nagging injuries that have troubled him in recent seasons, can play a pretty damn competent center field. It also has to be factored into the equation that the Braves got Teixeira in mid-season last year, so his power should replace much of what was lost when Jones headed to Los Angeles.
Atlanta has also brought back the aforementioned Glavine, who was essentially the number one starter for the Mets last year. The Braves have plugged him into the number three spot in their rotation, and with Hampton’s return, Atlanta has a very formidable starting rotation. And they’ll need to be formidable, considering the dearth of talent present in the Braves’ bullpen. Rafael Soriano will be solid as the team’s closer, but the team may struggle early in the year to find a bridge to Soriano. And, let’s face it, it’s not like any of the guys in the rotation — possibly excepting Smoltz — are workhorses capable of going eight innings every time out. In fact, health is already an issue with Smoltz, of all people, beginning the season on the disabled list.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2007 Record: 89-73 (won NL East, lost to Colorado Rockies in ALDS)
2008 Prediction: 3rd place, NL East
Key Additions: Brad Lidge, RP; Pedro Feliz, 3B; Geoff Jenkins, OF
Key Losses: Aaron Rowand, OF
Biggest Strength: Infield Offense
Biggest Weakness: Back End of Rotation
Biggest Improvement: Third Base (Feliz replaces Abraham Nunez/Wes Helms)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Shane Victorino, CF
Chase Utley, 2B
Ryan Howard, 1B
Pat Burrell, LF
Pedro Feliz, 3B
Geoff Jenkins, RF
Carlos Ruiz, C
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Cole Hamels, LHP
2.) Brett Myers, RHP
3.) Jamie Moyer, LHP
4.) Kyle Kendrick, RHP
5.) Adam Eaton, RHP
Closer: Brad Lidge, RHP
Key Setup Man: Tom Gordon, RHP
I don’t expect the defending National League East champions to repeat, or even make the playoffs this year.
While I definitely feel that they’ve improved an already strong lineup, I question the team moving Myers back to the rotation, especially now that they’ve replaced him with Lidge, a talented closer who turns into a complete headcase in big spots. The Phillies have a history of using these types of guys to try to close out games — Billy Wagner and Mitch Williams spring to mind — and you’d think they’d have learned their lesson by now.
And if Lidge goes down to injury — he’s hurt already — the backup plan is now Tom “Flash” Gordon, a notoriously poor performer in big spots. Say what you will about Myers as a person, but the guy can stay composed in big spots. Now he’ll have to readjust to the starting rotation, which he was ousted from after a poor beginning to 2007, and if he has a similar start to his 2008 season, we could be in store for a lot more early-season chaos in the City of Brotherly Love.
FLORIDA MARLINS
2007 Record: 71-91 (last place, NL East)
2008 Prediction: 4th place, NL East
Key Additions: Mark Hendrickson, SP; Andrew Miller, SP; Luis Gonzalez, OF
Key Losses: Miguel Cabrera, 3B; Dontrelle Willis, SP
Biggest Strength: Easily Available Tickets
Biggest Weakness: Liquidity
Biggest Improvement: Minor Leager Centerfielder (traded for Cameron Maybin)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Jeremy Hermida, RF
Dan Uggla, 2B
Josh Willingham, LF
Mike Jacobs, 1B
Jorge Cantu, 3B
Mike Rabelo, C
Alejandro De Aza, CF
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Mark Hendrickson, LHP
2.) Scott Olsen, RHP
3.) Andrew Miller, LHP
4.) Rick VandenHurk, RHP
5.) Ricky Nolasco, RHP
Closer: Kevin Gregg, RHP
Key Setup Man: Matt Lindstrom, RHP
The Florida Marlins are a bad team that got a lot worse over the winter. And yet I have them finishing ahead of the Washington Nationals this season. Why is that?
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
2007 Record: 73-89 (4th place, NL East)
2008 Prediction: Last Place, NL East
Key Additions: Paul Lo Duca, C; Odalis Perez, SP
Key Losses: Brian Schneider, C; Ryan Church, OF
Biggest Strength: Bench
Biggest Weakness: Pitching
Biggest Improvement: First Base Depth
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Nick Johnson, 1B
Paul Lo Duca, C
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
Austin Kearns, RF
Elijah Dukes, LF
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Lastings Milledge, CF
Cristian Guzman, SS
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Odalis Perez, LHP
2.) Matt Chico, LHP
3.) Jason Bergmann, RHP
4.) Tim Redding, RHP
5.) Shawn Hill, RHP
Closer: Chad Cordero, RHP
Key Setup Man: Jon Rauch, RHP
The Nationals are opening a new ballpark this year, and the rumor is that it is favorable to hitters. Given the pitching this team has, that is some bad news.
Whereas the extremely pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium was able to create the illusion of competent pitching for this team, a move to a ballpark that’s even neutral would be bad news for Nationals pitchers. This is why I’ve selected the Marlins to finish ahead of the Nationals. They have similar teams — frankly, I like Florida’s pitching a bit more — but, all things being equal, I’ll take the team that plays in the pitchers’ park over the one making a transition from an extreme pitchers’ park to a hitters’ park any time I’m given that choice.
