With less than six hours to go before the start of the 2008 Major League Baseball season, I figured it’d be a good time to get going on the Official Merrill Park Superstar 2008 Major League Baseball Season Preview™.
There’s a big difference between this and my analyses/projections of college basketball (and to a lesser extent the NFL) in that I put a lot more faith in my own judgment — the “eyeball test” ESPN’s college hoops talking heads frequently make reference to — than I would with college basketball and pro football. Here’s my ever-so-complex explanation for why I do this: I feel I have much greater knowledge of baseball than basketball and football.
Why? Well, there are several reasons. However, I’m the type of person that tends to learn through experience. And, of the “big four” sports, the one I have far and away the most experience playing is baseball. I started playing little league when I was about 10, probably younger, and continued playing in rec leagues well into high school, before my torn rotator cuff finally made playing full seasons a near impossibility.
Still, I played baseball in some capacity for at least eight years — likely more than half that time with a significant arm injury — and thus, that’s the sport I feel I have the greatest knowledge of, just from firsthand involvement. (For the record, basketball would be second on that list, albeit a distant one — my best days were behind me as soon as everyone else but me started growing in middle school.) It also helps that baseball is the most visible mainstream sport, what with its 162-game schedule. So, not only have I had the greatest amount of firsthand experience with the national pastime, but I’ve also surely seen far more baseball than any other sport. And I’m not even going to get into sharing an apartment with members of my school’s baseball team last year. You should get the point by now, assuming you haven’t just scrolled past this, perhaps in a fit of rage that had you shouting “GET TO THE FUCKING POINT!” at your screen.
SO…with all of those opening pleasantries out of the way, we can almost get to said point. Just one more thing to note: even though I say I’m less reliant on formulas and numbers when it comes to analyzing baseball, that certainly doesn’t mean I disregard them altogether.
OKAY. On to the preview.
2008 American League East
1.) Boston Red Sox
2.) New York Yankees
3.) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4.) Toronto Blue Jays
5.) Baltimore Orioles
BOSTON RED SOX
2007 Record: 96-66 (1st place, AL East — won World Series)
2008 Prediction: 1st place, AL East
Key Additions: Sean Casey, 1B
Key Losses: N/A
Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching
Biggest Weakness: Bench
Biggest Improvement: Bench (signed Casey)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
David Ortiz, DH
Manny Ramirez, LF
Mike Lowell, 3B
J.D. Drew, RF
Jason Varitek, C
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Julio Lugo, SS
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Josh Beckett, RHP
2.) Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP
3.) Jon Lester, LHP
4.) Tim Wakefield, RHP
5.) Clay Buchholz, RHP
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
Key Setup Men: Hideki Okajima, LHP; Manny Delcarmen, RHP
The Red Sox enter the season as the slight favorites to repeat as World Series Champions. It makes sense, since they’ve returned most of last year’s team. The team’s signing of Sean Casey was probably its most noteworthy signing of the off-season. He will replace Eric Hinske on the bench and will try to provide the team with some much-needed pop from the pine, which may be the only glaring weakness this team possesses. Early injuries to Beckett and Curt Schilling are cause for concern, particularly with the team now likely to lean on Buchholz more heavily than it may have liked.
Though there are some questions about the team’s hitting — will Lowell be able to follow up his contract year outburst with a similar year? Can Drew and Lugo bounce back after down years? — the bigger concern should be the team’s pitching. Matsuzaka struggled at times to adapt to the Big Leagues in 2007, will he make the proper adjustments in 2008? Will Beckett be able to stay healthy again? Can Buchholz carry a fifth starter’s load while Schilling is recovering from injury? And is Okajima for real?
If the answers to most of these questions are in the affirmative, the Red Sox may take yet another title from the Yankees — that of the most recent team to win back-to-back World Championships.
NEW YORK YANKEES
2007 Record: 94-68 (2nd place, AL East — won Wild Card, lost to Cleveland Indians in the ALDS)
2008 Prediction: 2nd place, AL East
Key Additions: N/A
Key Losses: Roger Clemens, RHP
Biggest Strength: Entire Starting Lineup
Biggest Weakness: Starting Pitching
Biggest Improvement: Bullpen Depth (signed RHP LaTroy Hawkins)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Johnny Damon, LF
Derek Jeter, SS
Bobby Abreu, RF
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Jorge Posada, C
Hideki Matsui, DH
Jason Giambi, 1B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Melky Cabrera, CF
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Chien-Ming Wang, RHP
2.) Andy Pettitte, LHP
3.) Phil Hughes, RHP
4.) Mike Mussina, RHP
5.) Ian Kennedy, RHP
Closer: Mariano Rivera, RHP
Key Setup Man: Joba Chamberlain, RHP
The New York Yankees have a new manager. Joe Girardi replaced Joe Torre at the helm after Torre chose to leave the team rather than accept a pay decrease to continue managing the Bronx Bombers. The former NL Manager of the Year comes in with a spotty track record. On one hand, he did a tremendous job with the Marlins in 2006. On the other, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria nearly fired him in the midst of the impressive run. He eventually calmed down and waited until the end of the year to axe the new Yankee skipper. Loria was far from the only member of the Marlins organization to butt heads with Girardi, if some rumors are to be believed.
It remains to be seen how the higher-strung Girardi will mesh with the veteran Yankees team and the obnoxious new Steinbrenner overlord at the helm. If he can manage the personalities as well as he seems to manage in-game situations (allegations of pitcher abuse notwithstanding), the Yankees should be able to give the Red Sox quite a run for their money.
Whether or not that success would translate into the post-season remains a mystery, however, given the team’s recent propensity towards disappearing in October. Not a lot of changes have been made between this and last year’s team, with the only significant personnel change being the departure of Roger Clemens. This will arguably weaken the pitching staff (Clemens was anything but stellar in his latest Yankees run, but he still ate innings), which hardly seems like a move in the right direction for the Yanks as they pursue that elusive 27th World Championship.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
2007 Record: 66-96 (last place, AL East)
2008 Prediction: 3rd place, AL East
Key Additions: Matt Garza, RHP; Troy Percival; RHP; Cliff Floyd, OF
Key Losses: Delmon Young, OF; The Word “Devil”
Biggest Strength: Outfield Depth
Biggest Weakness: Bullpen
Biggest Improvement: Starting Pitching (traded for Garza)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Akinori Iwamura, 2B
B.J. Upton, CF
Carl Crawford, LF
Carlos Pena, 1B
Cliff Floyd, DH
Jonny Gomes, RF
Dioner Navarro, C
Willy Aybar, 3B
Jason Bartlett, SS
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Scott Kazmir, LHP
2.) Jamie Shields, RHP
3.) Matt Garza, RHP
4.) Andy Sonnanstine, RHP
5.) Edwin Jackson, RHP
Closer: Troy Percival, RHP
Key Setup Man: Al Reyes, RHP
In spite of themselves, the Tampa Bay Rays look to have improved their team over the winter, going out and spending a little bit of money in order to address areas of need. The team surprised a number of people when it spent $24 million to make sure Pena remained a Ray for the next three years. While one may question the wisdom of tying that amount of money to someone like Pena, his 2007 career year notwithstanding, it’s still a step in the right direction for the Rays.
It’s more debatable which direction the organization took a step in when it dealt Young to the Minnesota Twins for Garza. On the surface, it looks like a very questionable move given Young’s ceiling. However, in the short-term, Garza fills an area of much greater need for Tampa Bay, and at the expense of the area in which the organization has/had its greatest depth. To that point, the deal could’ve been much worse.
Still, it’s not clear if the Rays are actually in “win now” mode. Sure, they went out and re-signed Pena, traded a potential superstar (with attitude issues, admittedly) to fill a more pressing need and even went out and signed Troy Percival to close for them. But they also made the decision to demote top prospect Evan Longoria at the end of spring training, despite the widely-held belief that Longoria could more than hold his own at the Major League level and that he would almost certainly outproduce Aybar, as he’s done in March.
Still, the team appears to have improved itself enough that, if the team gets a few breaks here and there (this tends to be a big if when dealing with the Rays), a third-place finish in the division looks very attainable. For a laughingstock like Tampa Bay, finishing behind the Red Sox and Yankees probably wouldn’t be all that bad for the perception of the franchise.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
2007 Record: 83-79 (3rd place, AL East)
2008 Prediction: 4th place, AL East
Key Additions: Scott Rolen, 3B; David Eckstein, SS
Key Losses: Troy Glaus, 3B
Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching
Biggest Weakness: Health
Biggest Improvement: Bullpen (B.J. Ryan [theoretically] returns from injury)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Aaron Hill, 2B
Vernon Wells, CF
Alex Rios, RF
Frank Thomas, DH
Scott Rolen, 3B
Matt Stairs, LF
Lyle Overbay, 1B
Gregg Zaun, C
David Eckstein, SS
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Roy Halladay, RHP
2.) A.J. Burnett, RHP
3.) Dustin McGowan, RHP
4.) Shaun Marcum, RHP
5.) Jesse Litsch, RHP
Closer: B.J. Ryan, LHP
Key Setup Men: Jeremy Accardo, RHP; Brandon League, RHP
There’s not a lot to say about the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ve been a steady presence in recent AL East history, hovering around .500 at the end of any given season while the Red Sox and Yankees duke it out for the top spot in the division. The Jays did manage to edge out the Sox in 2006 for a second place finish in the division, but, as usual, were never any real threat to win the AL East.
Every year, the Blue Jays are a popular sleeper among those who identify themselves as Major League Baseball experts, and every year they end up finishing with about 81 wins. Why does this team keep fooling people?
The easy answer is health. Halladay always seems to be banged up. And if he’s not, one if his key teammates surely will be. General manager J.P. Ricciardi has made sure of it, first going out and spending money on the notoriously fragile Burnett, and later signing Ryan, who made less than a handful of appearances for his new team before undergoing Tommy John surgery, to close. The former Baltimore fireman still has yet to fully recover, and is likely to start the 2008 season on the disabled list, leaving Accardo to finish games early in the year.
Accardo return to closing duties likely means League will end up pitching the eighth inning. The Hawaiian flamethrower is especially likely to fill that role because reliever Casey Janssen is already gone for the year with a torn right labrum.
And, just so the position players won’t feel left out, Rolen has already become acclimated to the ways of the Blue Jays, as he will also begin the season on the disabled list after suffering a broken finger in spring training.
Simply put, the Blue Jays are a talented team, but also an unlucky one. If luck ever finds its way onto their side, the Jays might have a run in them. As things stand right now, that doesn’t appear likely to happen.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
2007 Record: 69-93 (4th place, AL East)
2008 Prediction: last place, AL East
Key Additions: George Sherrill, LHP; Luke Scott, OF; Adam Jones, OF
Key Losses: Miguel Tejada, SS; Erik Bedard, LHP
Biggest Strength: Outfield Depth
Biggest Weakness: Everything Else
Biggest Improvement: Outfield Depth (received Jones, Scott in separate trades)
Projected 2008 Lineup:
Brian Roberts, 2B
Melvin Mora, 3B
Nick Markakis, RF
Kevin Millar, 1B
Aubrey Huff, DH
Ramon Hernandez, C
Luke Scott, LF
Adam Jones, CF
Luis Hernandez, SS
Projected 2008 Starting Rotation & Bullpen:
1.) Jeremy Guthrie, RHP
2.) Adam Loewen, LHP
3.) Daniel Cabrera, RHP
4.) Troy Patton, LHP
5.) Matt Albers, RHP
Closer: George Sherrill, LHP
Key Setup Man: Danys Baez, RHP
I mentioned earlier in the Blue Jays breakdown that they are a team with quite a bit of talent and not a lot of luck. Well, in a perfect world, the Baltimore Orioles may turn into the negative image of that team — a team with not a lot of talent, but quite a bit of luck. And, if they are lucky enough, they may just win 65 games.
I don’t really have that big of a problem with the Tejada trade — the timing of the deal made sense, and the package they got in exchange wasn’t all that bad. Trading Bedard, however, was a huge mistake, regardless of the package they got in return. Jones has star potential, and Sherrill could surprise a lot of people in the closer’s role in Baltimore. But Bedard is a stud left-handed starting pitcher who was pitching in a division where the two “alpha dogs” seem to have their greatest struggles at the hands of southpaws.
The move signifies that the Orioles have no desire to compete — or try to compete — in the American League East. As such, they have effectively been passed by by the Tampa Bay Rays in terms of effort being put towards contending. Frankly, I don’t think a lot more needs to be said.
This team has a heck of a shot at posting the worst record in all of baseball in 2008.
