SI.com is reporting that the Chicago Cubs have signed 30-year-old Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome to a four-year, $48 million contract.
With a physical the only hurdle left, it seems appropriate to begin speculating on his Major League fortunes.
There is reason for excitement among Cubs fans with regards to this move, particularly if Fukudome is able to sustain the numbers he put up in Japan. Of course, that is much easier said than done.
The trends displayed by Japanese imports suggests that Fukudome will have trouble replicating his power numbers in the States. His notable predecessors — Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, Kenji Johjima and Tadahito Iguchi, to name a few — have all seen a downward shift in their power numbers upon their arrivals to Major League Baseball. In 2002, Matsui’s final season with the Yomiuri Giants, “Godzilla” blasted 50 home runs. In two of the three prior seasons, he hammered 42 out of the park. Since joining the Yankees, the outfielder’s best total is 31 round-trippers.
In terms of power, a Matsui-type transition might be a best case scenario for Fukudome. When healthy, Iguchi and Johjima were each mortal locks for 25-30 homers over their final five seasons in Japan. Stateside, each man’s career best is 18.
And this is to say nothing of the dissipation or complete evaporation of power of Japanese standouts Suzuki (legendary BP sessions notwithstanding — he has only two seasons with 10+ homers in the Bigs after seven straight in Japan), Kaz Matsui (17 homers in 1,380 major league at-bats) and Akinori Iwamura (seven HRs as a rookie with the Rays after three consecutive 30+ seasons to conclude his Japanese tenure).
The common thread between Suzuki, Kaz Matsui and Iwamura is a proclivity towards free-swinging. Suzuki’s career-high in bases on balls in professional baseball is 68 — a number he attained once in Japan (1995, when he also hit a career-high 25 home runs) and once in the United States (2002). Matsui’s K:BB ratio in Japan was just a shade under 2:1, and has only gotten worse in the Majors. Iwamura, meanwhile, actually had to improve his plate discipline to achieve a 2:1 K:BB ratio upon his arrival to the Big Leagues in 2007.
Cubs fans hoping for at least an adequate return on their team’s $48 million investment can breathe a sigh of relief — one of Fukudome’s selling points is the excellent plate discipline he has developed with the Chunichi Dragons. His K:BB ratio has steadily improved over the past three season, culminating in a 0.95 rate in an injury-shortened 2007 campaign. Fukudome is not quite as selective a hitter as Matsui was coming out of Japan, but it’s close — and that’s a good thing.
If one was to hazard a guess as to Fukudome’s first season in the bigs, it seems that a batting average in the vicinity of .280 (and an OBP around .350) with about 20 homers seem like realistic expectations for his rookie campaign. Though Fukudome leaves an apparent home run hitter’s ballpark, he arrives at one similarly favorable to the longball. That, along with his plate discipline, could be a key factor in deciding the immediate fate of the “No. 1 Slugger” in Major League Baseball.
Statistics courtesy of Japaneseballplayers.com, JapaneseBaseball.com and Baseball Reference.
